The Matt LaFleur-Aaron Rodgers Era has started — for better or worse. The early returns do not look too good for your Green Bay Packers: They beat the Chicago Bears (–3 in home) 10-3 in Thursday’s season opener, even with Rogers going 18-of-30 for 203 yards and one touchdown. Defense? Quite yes. Offense? Not so much.
The Minnesota Vikings (–3.5 at home) seemed better in their 28-12 win over the Atlanta Falcons, leaning on both defense and rushing to get the business done. Old-school! And also the consensus reports at press time reveal the Vikings having a 54-percent lean as 2.5-point road dogs for Sunday’s matchup (1 p.m. ET, FOX) from Green Bay. Do they belong in our NFL picks?
Quite possibly. FiveThirtyEight sees the Packers as just 1.5-point faves, with their Elo-based projections. Jeff Sagarin’s figures in The USA Today are pretty close to the NFL odds, though, with Minnesota rated slightly ahead of Green Bay on neutral ground.
Why the difference? As we go to press week 1 is in progress, and Sagarin’s numbers have not been updated yet. They’ll need to be, after the problems the crime had in Soldier Field. Grantedthe Bears had the best defense in the league this past year, according to the DVOA stats (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at Football Outsiders. Before betting, get those numbers that are fresh.
We cashed in with all the”below” last Thursday, so perhaps that’s well worth a second shot. The consensus reports show 57 percent of bettors that are early feeling exactly the same way, forcing the entire from 46. At press time, 45 remains accessible; till we have some total projections to work with, we are essentially working with a net, but the”under” has some merit .
We know even though that shift as Rodgers and LaFleur get a little more repetitions in — Green Bay’s offense is sketchy. It also resembles the Vikings want to run the ball, which is always great for chewing up the clock. And both guards seem to be doing just fine through 60 minutes of drama.
Free NFL Pick: Beneath 45 (–107) in BetMania
Jason’s 2019 NFL picks album through Week 1: 0-0 ATS, 1-0 Totals